I was losing trade after trade—until I stopped calling tops and started following trends. Here's the trend signal that changed everything.
There comes a point in every trader’s journey when frustration peaks, and your portfolio looks like a warzone. For me, that was six brutal months of losses. Every trade seemed to go against me, especially when I tried to short what looked like a “top.”
I was stubborn—convincing myself I could time the market perfectly. But the market had other plans. I kept bleeding red. Until one day, I changed my game completely.
The Moment I Stopped Fighting Trends
Here’s the hard truth:
You can’t predict tops. But you can ride trends.
This mindset shift wasn’t just a pep talk; it was a game changer. Instead of trying to guess when price would reverse, I learned to confirm the trend and join it early, even if it meant letting go of “catching the first dollar.”
My Go-To Trend Confirmation: MACD Crossover + Candle Pattern
This combo became my north star:
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MACD Crossover: When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it’s a sign momentum is turning bullish.
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Bullish Candle Pattern: Look for engulfing candles or strong green closes confirming buying pressure.
Together, they tell me:
The trend is starting—and you don’t have to guess the top.
Real Talk: Risk/Reward Mindset Shift
I stopped obsessing over catching the absolute bottom. Instead, I aimed for:
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A clear trend confirmation
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Entry with a tight stop loss
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A realistic target with a favorable risk/reward ratio (2:1 or better)
This shift meant I accepted missing the initial dip—as long as I caught the larger move.
Chart Breakdown: How I Turned It Around
On one recovery trade with $ETH last spring:
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MACD crossed bullish on the 4-hour chart
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A large bullish engulfing candle confirmed the momentum
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I entered near the close of that candle, set my stop just below the low, risking 2% of my portfolio
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Within two weeks, the price surged over 15%, netting me a 7:1 reward/risk ratio
That trade alone wiped out weeks of red.
Why This Works When Shorting Trends Fails
Shorting an obvious uptrend? It’s like swimming against a tsunami.
Most blowouts happen because traders try to “pick tops” without confirmation—getting stopped out repeatedly. The market always rewards patience and alignment with momentum, not guessing reversals.
Have You Ever Blown an Account Trying to Short a Trend?
I have. More times than I care to admit.
Trading is brutal if you fight the trend. But it becomes sustainable when you learn to ride the wave—even if you miss the very first splash.
Final Thoughts: Follow the Trend, Not Your Ego
The day I stopped calling tops and started following confirmed trends was the day my portfolio stopped bleeding.
If you’re tired of red numbers and missed moves, start with:
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Watching MACD crossovers
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Waiting for candle confirmation
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Embracing a healthy risk/reward mindset
Because chasing tops feels good… until it doesn’t.
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