I remember the candle that got me.
Big green. Breakout above resistance.
S&P 500 flashing strength. CNBC flashing “Rally Mode Engaged.”
I went all in.
And 30 minutes later, I was out. Stopped. Again.
It wasn’t the first time.
It wouldn't be the last—until something finally clicked.
Everyone Was Bullish, So I Was Too
I was new, but not clueless. I understood technicals. I tracked economic news.
But every chart looked like a launchpad.
Every trader I followed on X was posting rocket emojis.
I wasn’t trying to get rich quick…
I was just trying not to miss the ride.
The FOMO wasn’t loud.
It was subtle — a kind of panic disguised as logic.
The Rally That Made Me Blind
Then it happened.
S&P 500 broke a multi-week resistance level.
Big volume. News coverage. Momentum names lighting up.
I sized up. Fast. No hesitation.
This was the breakout. The one every textbook says you catch and ride.
Until… the rug.
By lunchtime, we were back below support.
My stop? Tagged and bagged.
Twitter? Quiet. Charts? Red. Confidence? Gone.
The Tweet That Changed My Lens
I scrolled for answers. None of the usual gurus posted losses.
But one tweet, no likes, no hashtags, stood out:
“Volume lies. Futures tell the truth.”
That hit different.
It was like being told you’ve been watching the shadows, not the fire.
I’d never really looked at S&P 500 futures behavior before market open.
Not seriously.
So I started.
Following the Real Money
The next few days, I didn’t trade.
I watched. Logged.
Here’s what I noticed:
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Overnight futures would climb… only to stall near NYSE open.
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Premarket strength often faded by mid-morning.
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Key levels held in futures… but failed during regular hours.
It was like two different markets.
Then it made sense:
Real moves don’t happen when everyone’s watching.
They happen before — when liquidity is thin, volume is honest, and hype isn’t yet in play.
A Painful Lesson in Market Psychology
I couldn’t unsee it.
Next rally? Same script.
I tracked futures overnight — saw resistance tested 3 times, no conviction.
Price gapped up at the open… and I almost chased again.
But I waited.
Midday: sell-off. Hard. Fast. Clean trap.
That could’ve been me again.
Instead, I sat cash and took notes.
It hurt more emotionally than financially.
Because I realized how much I’d been mistaking optimism for confirmation.
From FOMO to Framework
Now I trade less.
Sometimes not at all during high-hype days.
Instead of chasing momentum, I map:
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Overnight highs/lows
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Premarket range compression or expansion
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Futures volume around key macro levels
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Divergence between futures and SPY/SPX cash open
The goal isn’t to be bullish or bearish.
It’s to be objective.
If the story doesn’t align between futures and regular hours, I stay out.
And weirdly… I win more.
My Rally Radar Is Different Now
If a breakout doesn’t have futures confirmation, I call bluff.
If price gaps up but structure is weak, I pass.
Sometimes, I watch others cheerlead a “rip” while I sip coffee, flat and relaxed.
I don’t need to catch every rally.
I just need to avoid the fool’s ones.
📈 Next Issue: Spotting the Trap Candles That Wipe Out Rookie Longs
We’ll break down:
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Why breakout candles often lead to drawdowns
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The 3 signs a candle is bait, not breakout
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Real examples from S&P 500 futures charts with screenshots
And yes—I'll share the exact journaling format I use to track premarket setups vs midday reversals.
→ Don’t miss it. Subscribe or drop a comment with your biggest “I got faked out” story. Let’s learn from the wreckage together.
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