Every trader has had that moment: drowning in a sea of indicators, hoping that layering more moving averages will somehow create a crystal ball for the market. But here’s the painful truth—price doesn’t care how many squiggly lines you draw on your chart.
So let’s tackle a bold question: what’s wrong with using just one moving average to trade the market?
Surprisingly, maybe nothing.
The Myth of “More Is Better”
Most retail traders think the magic is in adding more moving averages—10-day, 30-day, 60-day, exponential, weighted, smoothed. Before long, their chart looks like spaghetti.
But here’s the catch: moving averages don’t control price. They follow it. Price moves first, averages lag. Adding more of them doesn’t make the market clearer—it just makes you feel busier.
The choice isn’t between one average, two averages, or none. The choice is between clarity and confusion.
The Case for a Single Moving Average
Imagine you only used the 60-day moving average:
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Trend filter: If the line points up, think long. If it points down, think short.
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Entry trigger: Buy when price breaks the previous high (in an uptrend), or sell when it breaks the previous low (in a downtrend).
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Exit plan: If price crosses back through the moving average, get out.
That’s it. No clutter. No overfitting. Just a simple, repeatable framework.
Yes, it will lose in choppy markets. But here’s the kicker—so will every other indicator. The cost of trading is that no method works 100% of the time.
Why Traders Hate “Simple”
The real issue isn’t whether one moving average works—it’s whether the trader can handle its simplicity.
We crave complexity because it feels safer. It feels like more analysis equals more control. But in trading, simplicity is often more robust. One clean rule that you follow consistently beats a dozen indicators you second-guess.
Think about it: successful traders don’t survive because they have the perfect system. They survive because they stick to a system—even if it’s just a single moving average.
So, Can One Moving Average “Cover the World”?
In theory, yes. With discipline, a single moving average strategy can provide entries, exits, and trend direction. It won’t capture every move, and it won’t save you in sideways chop. But it can absolutely keep you aligned with the market’s bigger waves—and that’s where the real money is made.
The real problem isn’t the moving average. It’s the trader’s psychology.
Final Takeaway
Trading isn’t about finding the “perfect” tool. It’s about picking one that makes sense to you, then applying it consistently. For some, that one tool might just be a simple moving average.
Because at the end of the day, you don’t need more lines—you need more discipline.
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