
How to find two “related” stocks or crypto that behave like a pair? If you’ve opened up a trading platform, stared at endless tickers, and felt paralyzed, this article is for you.
What Is Pair Trading?
- Finding two assets that move together over time.
- Waiting for that relationship to temporarily break.
- Taking a long position in the underpriced one and a short position in the overpriced one.
- Profiting when they snap back to equilibrium.
Think of it like two rubber-band-connected runners—one surges ahead, one lags. Eventually, they’ll move back toward each other.
But how do you find these “magic” pairs?
Step 1: Start With Companies in the Same Industry
Look for stocks that:
- Share the same sector
- Have similar fundamentals
- Face the same macro trends
Example:
- Coca-Cola & Pepsi
- Mastercard & Visa
- Ford & General Motors
- Shell & BP
These are natural pair candidates—they operate under the same business dynamics and are often held by the same types of investors.
Step 2: Check Correlation
Use basic tools (like Excel, TradingView, or Python) to calculate Pearson correlation. You’re looking for a high correlation (above 0.8), but here’s the kicker:
High correlation ≠ profitable pair.
It just means they move similarly. But you want to know if they mean to revert.
Step 3: Test for Cointegration
Cointegration means the pair doesn’t just move similarly—they stay anchored in a statistically consistent way. Even if both stocks go up or down over time, the spread between them remains mean-reverting.
Use tools like
- Python (statsmodels, Engle-Granger test)
- QuantConnect
- Backtesting libraries like bt or zipline
If a pair passes the cointegration test, congrats—you have a statistically valid trading candidate.
Real Example: Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi
- Observation: High correlation over 10 years
- Cointegration: Confirmed via Engle-Granger test
- Spread = KO — β * PEP (calculated via linear regression)
Now you monitor that spread. When it widens beyond historical limits (say, 2 standard deviations), you:
- Buy KO (undervalued).
- Short PEP (overvalued)
Wait for reversion, close both legs, and lock in your delta.
But what could go wrong?
- The spread might never revert.
- Structural shifts (M&A, scandals) can break the pair.
- Trading costs and slippage kill profitability.
- Market-wide crashes throw all correlations into the trash.
That’s why this isn’t just plug-and-play. You need constant recalibration and discipline.
Tools to Make It Easier
- QuantConnect—Free Python-based backtesting with brokerage integration
- Pairs Trader Pro (desktop)—Visual interface for identifying spreads
- Kibot or Quandl—Historical data
- TradingView—Fast correlation visualization
- Python Libraries—pandas, statsmodels, matplotlib, scikit-learn
Even Google Sheets can get you started with correlation heatmaps.
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